The Balkan Wars: 1912-1913 | Page 2

the Aegean, when the time
came to secure this concession from the Sultan without provoking a
European war. It seemed in 1908 as though the favorable moment had
arrived to make a first move, and the Austro-Hungarian government put
forward a project for connecting the Bosnian and Macedonian railway
systems. But the only result was to bring to an end the co-operation
which had for some years been maintained between the Austrian and
Russian governments in the enforcement upon the Porte of the adoption
of reforms in Macedonia.

And now the result of the Balkan Wars of 1912-1913 was the practical
expulsion of Turkey from Europe and the territorial aggrandizement of
Servia and the sister state of Montenegro through the annexation of
those very Turkish domains which lay between the Austro-Hungarian
frontier and the Aegean. At every point Austro-Hungarian policies had
met with reverses.
Only one success could possibly be attributed to the diplomacy of the
Ballplatz. The exclusion of Servia from the Adriatic Sea and the
establishment of the independent State of Albania was the achievement
of Count Berchtold, the Austro-Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs.
The new State has been a powder magazine from the beginning, and
since the withdrawal of Prince William of Wied, the government,
always powerless, has fallen into chaos. Intervention on the part of
neighboring states is inevitable. And only last month the southern part
of Albania--that is, Northern Epirus--was occupied by a Greek army for
the purpose of ending the sanguinary anarchy which has hitherto
prevailed. This action will be no surprise to the readers of this volume.
The occupation, or rather re-occupation, is declared by the Greek
Government to be provisional and it is apparently approved by all the
Great Powers. Throughout the rest of Albania similar intervention will
be necessary to establish order, and to protect the life and property of
the inhabitants without distinction of race, tribe, or creed. Servia might
perhaps have governed the country, had she not been compelled by the
Great Powers, at the instigation of Austria-Hungary, to withdraw her
forces. And her extrusion from the Adriatic threw her back toward the
Aegean, with the result of shutting Bulgaria out of Central Macedonia,
which was annexed by Greece and Servia presumably under
arrangements satisfactory to the latter for an outlet to the sea at Saloniki.
The war declared by Austria-Hungary against Servia may be regarded
to some extent as an effort to nullify in the interests of the former the
enormous advantages which accrued directly to Servia and indirectly to
Russia from the Balkan Wars of 1912-1913. That Russia should have
come to the support of Servia was as easy to foresee as any future
political event whatever. And the action of Germany and France once
war had broken out between their respective allies followed as a matter
of course. If the Austro-German Alliance wins in the War of Many
Nations it will doubtless control the eastern Adriatic and open up a way

for itself to the Aegean. Indeed, in that event, German trade and
German political influence would spread unchallenged across the
continents from the North Sea to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean.
Turkey is a friend and ally; but even if Turkey were hostile she would
have no strength to resist such victorious powers. And the Balkan
States, with the defeat of Russia, would be compelled to recognize
Germanic supremacy.
If on the other hand the Allies come out victorious in the War of Many
Nations, Servia and perhaps Roumania would be permitted to annex the
provinces occupied by their brethren in the Dual Monarchy and Servian
expansion to the Adriatic would be assured. The Balkan States would
almost inevitably fall under the controlling influence of Russia, who
would become mistress of Constantinople and gain an unrestricted
outlet to the Mediterranean through the Bosphorus, the Sea of Marmora,
and the Dardanelles.
In spite of themselves the destiny of the peoples of the Balkans is once
more set on the issue of war. It is not inconceivable, therefore, that
some or all of those States may be drawn into the present colossal
conflict. In 1912-1913 the first war showed Bulgaria, Greece,
Montenegro, and Servia allied against Turkey; and in the second war
Greece, Montenegro, and Servia were joined by Roumania in the war
against Bulgaria, who was also independently attacked by Turkey.
What may happen in 1914 or 1915 no one can predict. But if this
terrible conflagration, which is already devastating Europe and
convulsing all the continents and vexing all the oceans of the globe,
spreads to the Balkans, one may hazard the guess that Greece,
Montenegro, Servia, and Roumania will stand together on the side of
the Allies and that Bulgaria if she is not carried away by marked
Austro-German victories will remain neutral,--unless indeed