An Assessment of the Consequences and Preparations for a Catastrophic California Earthquake: Findin | Page 6

2202) is contained in annex 3.
2. Management of Preparedness and Response Activities
=Finding=: Preparedness must be developed as a partnership between
Federal, State, and local governments with improvements needed at all

levels, as none have the resources or authorities to solve the problem
alone.
=Issue=: Since the Nation faces a very probable earthquake in
California sometime during the next 30 years, FEMA should provide
the necessary leadership, management, and coordination required to
strengthen planning and preparedness within the Federal Government,
as delegated under the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction
Program of 1977 and the Disaster Relief Act of 1974. In this effort,
FEMA requires the support and assistance of numerous other Federal
agencies.
=Actions=: FEMA is taking steps to:
» Strengthen significantly its management, research, application, and
coordination functions, as delegated under the National Earthquake
Hazards Reduction Program and Disaster Relief Act.
» Lead other agencies in the development of a comprehensive
preparedness strategy detailing specific objectives and assignments,
and periodically monitor accomplishments in meeting assigned
responsibilities.
Departments and agencies with appropriate capabilities will provide
needed support to FEMA in strengthening Federal preparedness and
hazard mitigation programs.
=Issue=: A major deficiency that has been identified is the potential for
delay following a catastrophic earthquake in processing a request for a
Presidential declaration of a major disaster, and the subsequent
initiation of full-scale Federal support for lifesaving actions. The first
few hours are critical in saving the lives of people trapped in collapsed
buildings; consequently, this is when Federal support is needed most.
Decisions on post-event recovery aspects of Federal assistance can be
deferred until lifesaving operations are underway and sufficient
information about damage is in hand.
=Action=: FEMA will develop and negotiate, before the event, an

agreement with the State of California which will enable the President
to declare a major disaster and initiate full-scale Federal support for
lifesaving and humanitarian action within minutes of a catastrophic
earthquake. The agreement will defer resolution of issues relating to
longer-term restoration and recovery and similar questions with large
budgetary implications until adequate damage estimates are available.
The Executive Branch will thus be able to arrive at an informed
decision.
=Issue=: Significant improvements in the Federal, State, and local
capability for coordination of operational response to a catastrophic
earthquake are needed.
=Actions=: FEMA and other appropriate Federal agencies will increase
their efforts, in a partnership with appropriate State and local agencies
and volunteer and private-sector organizations, to:
» Complete development and agreement on fully integrated earthquake
response plans for both the San Francisco and Los Angeles regions,
including provision for predicted as well as unpredicted earthquakes,
building upon the existing draft plan for San Francisco.
» Establish a small FEMA staff in California dedicated to the
coordination of earthquake preparedness planning and implementation.
» Develop improved mechanisms for the coordination of medical and
mortuary activities following a catastrophic earthquake.
» Identify and document the critical requirements for emergency
communications--particularly non-telephonic communications--among
Federal, State, and local agencies. Shortfalls between critical
requirements and current capabilities, as well as remedial actions or
recommended solutions for each will be identified in accordance with
the "National Plan for Communications Support in Emergencies and
Major Disasters." This review will include consideration of using
existing satellite communications or a dedicated system, should it be
found necessary.

» Cooperatively conduct practice response exercises with State and
local officials that will prepare officials and the public for conditions
that might be encountered in a catastrophic earthquake and that would
reveal deficiencies in planning.
=Issue=: Improving the current inadequate preparedness of the public
for a catastrophic earthquake requires a substantial increase in public
information and public awareness. Although public information is
primarily a State, local, and private-sector responsibility, the Federal
Government has a role as well. Because citizens will have no choice
but to rely largely upon their own resources in the first several hours
immediately following a catastrophic earthquake, it is important that
certain basic knowledge about lifesaving measures be very widely
disseminated.
=Action=: FEMA will stimulate and work with the State of California
and other appropriate groups to develop and publicize earthquake
awareness, hazard mitigation techniques, specific post-earthquake
actions to be taken, including first aid, and other pertinent information.
=Issue=: The possibility of a credible, scientifically-based prediction of
a catastrophic earthquake poses serious challenges to government and
our society. The current level of scientific understanding of earthquake
prediction and the available resources are such that present
instrumentation efforts are directed toward research rather than
maintaining extensive monitoring networks for real-time prediction.
The transition from research to fully operational capability will require
additional scientific understanding as well as resources. Earthquake
predictions are possible, perhaps likely, however, from the current
research effort. Even with a significant level of uncertainty, any
scientifically credible prediction that indicates a catastrophic
earthquake is expected within about 1 year or less,