An Assessment of the Consequences and Preparations for a Catastrophic California Earthquake: Findin | Page 5

potential
catastrophic earthquake occurrences. The emergency response portion
relies upon a decentralized approach which provides for Federal
disaster support activities to be assigned to selected Federal agencies by
mission assignment letters. No specific plans have been prepared in this
detail for other seismic risk areas, although it is expected that the Bay
Area plan could be easily adapted to other areas. The Department of
Defense and the Department of Transportation are developing detailed
earthquake plans that would ensure a well-organized and adequate
response to mission assignments for a major earthquake. The plans of
other agencies need further development.
Very significant capabilities to assist in emergency response exist
within the California National Guard, California Highway Patrol, the
Departments of Health Services and Transportation, and the U.S.
Department of Defense. Capabilities exist for such lifesaving activities
as aerial reconnaissance, search and rescue, emergency medical
services, emergency construction and repair, communications, and
emergency housing and food. Current estimates by both Federal and
State officials, however, indicate that at least 6 to 8 hours would be
required before personnel and equipment can be mobilized and begin

initial deployment to the affected area. During the period before the
arrival of significant outside assistance critical to the saving of lives
(especially of those trapped in collapsed buildings), the public would
be forced to rely largely upon its own resources for search and rescue,
first aid, and general lifesaving actions. The current level of public
preparation for this critical phase of response can be described as only
minimal. Much of the current state of preparedness arises from past
programs aimed at a wide spectrum of emergencies, particularly civil
defense against nuclear attack. New or strengthened programs are
needed to enhance public preparedness.
FEMA has recently entered into a cooperative effort with California
State and local governments to prepare an integrated prototype
preparedness plan to respond to a catastrophic earthquake in Southern
California or to a prediction of such an event. The plan's completion, in
late 1981, promises to improve substantially the state of readiness to
respond to the prediction and the occurrence of an earthquake in that
area and to provide a model which could be applied to other
earthquake-prone regions of California and the rest of the country.
F. FINDINGS, ISSUES, AND ACTIONS
The ad hoc committee responsible for this review developed several
significant findings related to the implications of major earthquakes in
California and our capabilities to respond to them. It then identified
major relevant issues raised by these findings and caused a number of
actions to be taken. A brief discussion of the results of its review
follows.
1. Leadership
=Finding=: Effective leadership at all governmental levels is the single
most important factor needed to improve this Nation's preparedness for
a catastrophic earthquake in California. The problem of emergency
preparedness is severely complicated because responsibilities for
preparation and response cut across normal lines of authority. Further
complication arises from the large areal extent of the impacts expected
from a major earthquake, affecting literally dozens of government

entities. The emergency services coordinator at any level of
government is effective only to the extent he or she is backed by the
political leadership at that level. This is especially true when
preparedness activities must be done, for the most part, within existing
resources. City and county officials must increasingly accept their share
of the responsibility for preparedness, but commitment by State or
Federal leaders is also essential. The general tendency among elected
officials and the public is to ignore the existing hazard problem.
Experience, however, teaches that effective response mechanisms must
be in place before the disaster; they cannot be developed in the time of
crisis. Overcoming this apathy and developing the organizational
arrangements among Federal, State, and local government and
volunteer agencies--together with the private sector and the general
public will require, above all, leadership.
=Issue=: The leadership role of the Federal Government in preparing
for a catastrophic earthquake in California and how this leadership role
is to be exerted require clarification.
=Action=: The President has communicated with the Governor of
California to indicate the results of this review, to express concern
about the need for cooperative leadership to prepare for the event, and
to offer to increase the Federal effort with the State of California and
local governments in the cooperative undertaking to prepare for a
catastrophic earthquake. He stressed that the Federal role is to
supplement the effort and resources of the State, and that commitment
of significant Federal resources would be contingent upon the
application of significant State resources. In his response to the
President's communications, the Governor of California underscored
the State's readiness to participate in this cooperative effort and
announced his signing into law a measure that would provide
substantial State resources (see annex 1). A summary of the new law
(A.B.