An Assessment of the Consequences and Preparations for a Catastrophic California Earthquake: Findin | Page 7

will require very
difficult and consequential decisions on the part of elected officials at
all levels of government. Decisions may include such possibilities as
the mobilization of National Guard and U.S. Department of Defense
resources prior to the event, the imposition of special procedures or
drills at potentially hazardous facilities, such as nuclear reactors or

dams, the condemnation or evacuation of particularly unsafe buildings
with the subsequent need for temporary housing, and the provisions of
special protection of fragile inventories. If the prediction is correct and
appropriate actions are taken, thousands of lives can be saved and
significant economic losses can be avoided. The costs of responding to
a prediction may be substantial, however, and the commitment of
resources undoubtedly will have to be made in the face of considerable
uncertainty and even reluctance. Indeed, the possibility of an inaccurate
prediction must be faced squarely.
=Actions=: FEMA, in conjunction with other appropriate Federal
agencies, State and local governments, and volunteer and private-sector
organizations, will increase its actions to develop procedures for
responding to a credible, scientific earthquake prediction, including:
» Identification of constructive and prudent actions to be taken
» Analysis of the costs and benefits of various alternative actions
» Identification of roles and responsibilities in deciding which actions
should be implemented and by whom
» Criteria for evaluating circumstances when the provision of Federal
assistance would be appropriate
The U.S. Geological Survey of the Department of the Interior will:
» Maintain a sound and well-balanced program of research in
earthquake prediction and hazard assessment based upon a carefully
considered strategic plan
» Work with State and local officials and FEMA to develop improved
mechanisms for the transmission of earthquake predictions and related
information, and to plan for the utilization of the capability for
earthquake prediction
3. Resources

=Finding=: While leadership and management are essential ingredients
to achieve an adequate earthquake preparedness posture, the
availability of adequate staffing and resources at all levels of
government determines the efficacy of agency programs and initiatives.
In many agencies, earthquake preparedness has been accorded a low
priority in their programs. This is a manifestation of a more general
problem of minimal agency resource allocation to emergency
preparedness. The results of the actions that have been indicated will be
limited unless additional resources are made available.
=Issue=: Additional resources should be provided as necessary to
accelerate the earthquake hazard mitigation and preparedness activities
under the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program.
=Action=: FEMA has reassessed its priorities and is allocating
resources to increase the staffing, funding, and management attention
and direction for earthquake hazards mitigation, including preparations
for a catastrophic earthquake in California. This includes an increase of
staff resources in FEMA Region IX for Federal, State, and local
coordination of planning, preparedness, and mitigation. Resource needs
that cannot be fully met by the reassessment and reallocation for Fiscal
Year 1981 should be identified and justified along with needs for Fiscal
Year 1982 in the course of the budget submissions for Fiscal Year 1982.
To facilitate an adequate and balanced response by other Federal
agencies, FEMA will provide timely guidance to other agencies on
specific priorities for this effort in relation to other major preparedness
goals. The Office of Management and Budget and the Office of Science
and Technology Policy will work together to develop a cross-agency
ranking of budgetary resources for earthquake preparedness for Fiscal
Year 1982.
CHAPTER II
GEOLOGIC EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS
A. MAJOR EVENTS
For purposes of assessing the consequences of a major California

earthquake, scenarios for seven large earthquakes were developed. The
scenarios depict expectable earthquakes that could severely impact on
the major population centers of California. In each case they are
representative of only one possible magnitude of earthquake that could
occur on the indicated fault system. On each fault system there is a
greater probability of one or more damaging earthquakes of somewhat
smaller magnitude than the postulated event. The postulated
earthquakes are listed in the following table.
TABLE 1
MAJOR CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKES
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Current
Annual Likelihood Probability of of Occurrence Richter Occurrence in
Next Region Fault System Magnitude[1] (Percent) 20-30 Years
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Los Angeles- Southern San Bernardino San Andreas 8.3 2-5 High
San Francisco Northern Bay Area San Andreas 8.3 1 Moderate
San Francisco Bay Area Hayward 7.4 1 Moderate
Los Angeles Newport- Moderate Inglewood 7.5 0.1 -Low
San Diego Rose Canyon 7.0 0.01 Low
Riverside Moderate- San Bernardino Cucamonga 6.8 0.1 Low
Los Angeles Santa Monica 6.7 0.01 Low
------------------------------------------------------------------------- [1] This is
the estimated largest magnitude earthquake expected at a reasonable
level of probability. The main shock can be expected to be followed by
large aftershocks over a period of weeks or longer. Each large
aftershock would be capable of producing additional significant
damage and hampering disaster assistance operations.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

These earthquake scenarios represent the largest magnitude events
estimated on