Lessons of the War | Page 2

despatch of the
forces could begin and proceed without a hitch. The Army was never in

better condition either as regards the zeal and skill of its officers from
the highest to the lowest, the training and discipline of the men, or the
organisation of all branches of the service. Nor is the present condition
of the Army good merely by comparison with what it was twenty years
ago. A very high standard has been attained, and those who have
watched the Army continuously for many years feel confident that all
ranks and all arms will do their duty. The present situation, in which
the Boers start favourably handicapped for five weeks certain, is the
foreseen consequence of the decision of the Cabinet to postpone the
measures necessary for the defence of the British colonies and for
attack upon the Boer States. This decision is not attributable to
imperfect information. It was regarded as certain so long ago as
December last, by those in a position to give the best forecast, that the
Boers of both States meant war with the object of establishing Boer
supremacy. The Cabinet, therefore, has knowingly and deliberately
taken upon itself the responsibility for whatever risks are now run. In
this deliberate decision of the Cabinet lies the best ground for hoping
that the risks are not so great as they seem.
The two Boer Republics are well supplied with money, arms, and
ammunition, and I believe have collected large stores of supplies. Their
armies consist of their burghers, with a small nucleus of professional
artillery, officers, and men. The total number of burghers of both States
is about fifty thousand, and that number is swollen by the addition of
non-British Uitlanders who have been induced to take arms by the offer
of burghership. The two States are bound by treaty to stand or fall
together, and the treaty gives the Commander-in-Chief of both armies
to the Transvaal Commander-in-Chief, who is however, bound to
consult his subordinate colleague of the Orange Free State. The whole
of the fifty thousand burghers cannot take the field. Some must remain
to watch the native population, which far outnumbers the burghers and
is not well affected. Some must be kept to watch the Basutos, who are
anxious to raid the Free State, and there will be deductions for sick and
absentees as well as for the necessary duties of civil administration.
The forts of Pretoria, Johannesburg, and Bloemfontein require
permanent garrisons. In the absence of the accurate data obtainable in
the case of an army regularly organised into tactical and administrative
units, the most various estimates are current of the force that the two

States can put into the field as a mobile army available for attack as
well as for defence. I think thirty-five thousand men a safer estimate
than twenty-five thousand. The Boers are fighting for their political
existence, which to their minds is identical with their monopoly of
political rights, and therefore their States will and must exert
themselves to the uttermost. This view is confirmed by the action of the
British military authorities, who estimate the British force necessary to
disarm the Boer States at over seventy thousand men, a number which
would seem disproportionate to a Boer field force of only twenty-five
thousand. The British forces now in South Africa are in two separate
groups. In Natal Sir George White has some ten thousand regular
troops and two thousand volunteers, the regulars being eight or nine
infantry battalions, four regiments of cavalry, six field batteries, and a
mounted battery. He appears to have no horse artillery. In the Cape
Colony there are seven British battalions and, either landed or on
passage, three field batteries. A part of this force is scattered in small
garrisons of half a battalion each at points on the railways leading to
the Free State--Burghersdrop, Naauwpoort, and Kimberley. At
Mafeking Colonel Baden-Powell has raised a local force and has
fortified the place as well as its resources permit. A force of Rhodesian
volunteers is moving from Buluwayo towards Tuli, on the northern
border of the Transvaal. There are volunteer corps in the Cape Colony
with a total of some seven thousand men, but it is not clear whether the
Schreiner Ministry, whose sympathies with the Boers are undisguised,
has not prevented the effective arming of these corps.
The reports of the distribution of the Boer forces on the frontiers must
be taken with caution. Apparently there are preparations for the attack
of Mafeking and of Kimberley, and it is open for the Boers to bring
against either or both of these places forces largely outnumbering their
defenders. Both places are prepared for defence against ordinary field
forces. The actions at these places cannot very greatly affect the general
result. Their nearness to