The Problem of China | Page 9

too
quickly to be all civilized in turn. China was saved from this fate by the
Gobi Desert and the Tibetan uplands. Since the white men have taken
to coming by sea, the old geographical immunity is lost, and greater
energy will be required to preserve the national independence.
In spite of geographical advantages, however, the persistence of
Chinese civilization, fundamentally unchanged since the introduction
of Buddhism, is a remarkable phenomenon. Egypt and Babylonia
persisted as long, but since they fell there has been nothing comparable
in the world. Perhaps the main cause is the immense population of
China, with an almost complete identity of culture throughout. In the
middle of the eighth century, the population of China is estimated at
over 50 millions, though ten years later, as a result of devastating wars,
it is said to have sunk to about 17 millions.[13] A census has been
taken at various times in Chinese history, but usually a census of
houses, not of individuals. From the number of houses the population is
computed by a more or less doubtful calculation. It is probable, also,

that different methods were adopted on different occasions, and that
comparisons between different enumerations are therefore rather unsafe.
Putnam Weale[14] says:--
The first census taken by the Manchus in 1651, after the restoration of
order, returned China's population at 55 million persons, which is less
than the number given in the first census of the Han dynasty, A.D. 1,
and about the same as when Kublai Khan established the Mongal
dynasty in 1295. (This is presumably a misprint, as Kublai died in
1294.) Thus we are faced by the amazing fact that, from the beginning
of the Christian era, the toll of life taken by internecine and frontier
wars in China was so great that in spite of all territorial expansion the
population for upwards of sixteen centuries remained more or less
stationary. There is in all history no similar record. Now, however,
came a vast change. Thus three years after the death of the celebrated
Manchu Emperor Kang Hsi, in 1720, the population had risen to 125
millions. At the beginning of the reign of the no less illustrious Ch'ien
Lung (1743) it was returned at 145 millions; towards the end of his
reign, in 1783, it had doubled, and was given as 283 millions. In the
reign of Chia Ch'ing (1812) it had risen to 360 millions; before the
Taiping rebellion (1842) it had grown to 413 millions; after that terrible
rising it sunk to 261 millions.
I do not think such definite statements are warranted. The China Year
Book for 1919 (the latest I have seen) says (p. 1):--
The taking of a census by the methods adopted in Western nations has
never yet been attempted in China, and consequently estimates of the
total population have varied to an extraordinary degree. The nearest
approach to a reliable estimate is, probably, the census taken by the
Minchengpu (Ministry of Interior) in 1910, the results of which are
embodied in a report submitted to the Department of State at
Washington by Mr. Raymond P. Tenney, a Student Interpreter at the
U.S. Legation, Peking.... It is pointed out that even this census can only
be regarded as approximate, as, with few exceptions, households and
not individuals were counted.
The estimated population of the Chinese Empire (exclusive of Tibet) is

given, on the basis of this census, as 329,542,000, while the population
of Tibet is estimated at 1,500,000. Estimates which have been made at
various other dates are given as follows (p. 2):
A.D. A.D. 1381 59,850,000 / 143,125,225 1412 66,377,000
1760--203,916,477 1580 60,692,000 1761 205,293,053 1662
21,068,000 1762 198,214,553 1668 25,386,209 1790 155,249,897 /
23,312,200 / 307,467,200 1710 --27,241,129 1792- 333,000,000 1711
28,241,129 / 362,467,183 1736 125,046,245 1812--360,440,000 /
157,343,975 1842 413,021,000 1743 149,332,730 1868 404,946,514 \
150,265,475 1881 380,000,000 1753 103,050,600 1882 381,309,000
1885 377,636,000
These figures suffice to show how little is known about the population
of China. Not only are widely divergent estimates made in the same
year (_e.g._ 1760), but in other respects the figures are incredible. Mr.
Putnam Weale might contend that the drop from 60 millions in 1580 to
21 millions in 1662 was due to the wars leading to the Manchu
conquest. But no one can believe that between 1711 and 1736 the
population increased from 28 millions to 125 millions, or that it
doubled between 1790 and 1792. No one knows whether the population
of China is increasing or diminishing, whether people in general have
large or small families, or any of the other facts that vital statistics are
designed to elucidate. What is said on these subjects, however
dogmatic, is no more than guess-work. Even the population of Peking
is unknown. It is said to be about 900,000, but