agriculture, and a survey of these historical facts will be the subject of one of my lectures. In some instances I have succeeded in repeating these observations in my garden under the strict conditions of a scientific experiment, and these instances teach us the real nature of the process of mutation in all its visible features. New elementary [17] species are far more rare, but I have discovered in the great evening-primrose, or Oenothera lamarckiana a strain which is producing them yearly in the wild state as well as in my garden. These observations and pedigree-experiments will be dealt with at due length in subsequent lectures.
Having proved the existence and importance of mutations, it remains to inquire how far the improvements may go which are due only to fluctuating variability. As the term indicates, this variability is fluctuating to and fro, oscillating around an average type. It never fails nor does it, under ordinary circumstances, depart far from the fixed average.
But the deviation may be enlarged by a choice of extremes. In sowing their seed, the average of the strain is seen to be changed, and in repeating the experiment the change may be considerable. It is not clear, whether theoretically by such an accumulation, deviations might be reached which could not be attained at once in a single sowing. This question is hardly susceptible of an experimental answer, as it would require such an enormous amount of seed from a few mother plants as can scarcely ever be produced.
The whole character of the fluctuations shows them to be of an opposite nature, contrasting [18] manifestly with specific and varietal characters. By this method they may be proved to be inadequate ever to make a single step along the great lines of evolution, in regard to progressive as well as to retrograde development.
First of all fluctuations are linear, amplifying or lessening the existing qualities, but not really changing their nature. They are not observed to produce anything quite new, and evolution of course, is not restricted to the increase of the already existing peculiarities, but depends chiefly on the continuous addition of new characters to the stock. Fluctuations always oscillate around an average, and if removed from this for some time, they show a tendency to return to it. This tendency, called retrogression, has never been observed to fail, as it should, in order to free the new strain from the links with the average, while new species and new varieties are seen to be quite free from their ancestors and not linked to them by intermediates.
The last few lectures will be devoted to questions concerning the great problem of the analogy between natural and artificial selection. As already stated, Darwin made this analogy the foundation stone of his theory of descent, and he met with the severest objections and criticisms precisely on this point. But I hope to [19] show that he was quite right, and that the cause of the divergence of opinions is due simply to the very incomplete state of knowledge concerning both processes. If both are critically analyzed they may be seen to comprise the same factors, and further discussion may be limited to the appreciation of the part which each of them has played in nature and among cultivated plants.
Both natural and artificial selection are partly specific, and partly intra-specific or individual. Nature of course, and intelligent men first chose the best elementary species from among the swarms. In cultivation this is the process of variety-testing. In nature it is the survival of the fittest species, or, as Morgan designates it, the survival of species in the struggle for existence. The species are not changed by this struggle, they are only weighed against each other, the weak being thrown aside.
Within the chosen elementary species there is also a struggle. It is obvious, that the fluctuating variability adapts some to the given circumstances, while it lessens the chances of others. A choice results, and this choice is what is often exclusively called selection, either natural or artificial. In cultivation it produces the improved and the local races; in nature little is known about improvement in this way, but [19] local adaptations with slight changes of the average character in separate localities, seem to be of quite normal occurrence.
A new method of individual selection has been used in recent years in America, especially by W.M. Hays. It consists in judging the hereditary worth of a plant by the average condition of its offspring, instead of by its own visible characters. If this determination of the "centgener power," as Hays calls it, should prove to be the true principle of selection, then indeed the analogy between natural and artificial selection would lose a large part of its importance. We will reserve this question for the last lecture,
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