Russia | Page 6

Association--The Great Strike in St. Petersburg--Father Gapon goes
over to the Revolutionaries.


CHAPTER XXXVIII
TERRITORIAL EXPANSION AND FOREIGN POLICY
Rapid Growth of Russia--Expansive Tendency of Agricultural
Peoples-- The Russo-Slavonians--The Northern Forest and the Steppe--
Colonisation--The Part of the Government in the Process of
Expansion--Expansion towards the West--Growth of the Empire
Represented in a Tabular Form--Commercial Motive for
Expansion--The Expansive Force in the Future--Possibilities of
Expansion in Europe--Persia, Afghanistan, and India--Trans-Siberian
Railway and Weltpolitik--A Grandiose Scheme--Determined
Opposition of Japan-- Negotiations and War--Russia's Imprudence
Explained--Conclusion.

CHAPTER XXXIX
THE PRESENT SITUATION
Reform or Revolution?--Reigns of Alexander II. and Nicholas II.
Compared and Contrasted--The Present Opposition--Various Groups--
The Constitutionalists--Zemski Sobors--The Young Tsar Dispels
Illusions--Liberal Frondeurs--Plehve's Repressive Policy-- Discontent
Increased by the War--Relaxation and Wavering under Prince
Mirski--Reform Enthusiasm--The Constitutionalists Formulate their
Demands--The Social Democrats--Father Gapon's Demonstration-- The
Socialist-Revolutionaries--The Agrarian Agitators--The Subject-
Nationalities--Numerical Strength of the Various Groups--All United
on One Point--Their Different Aims--Possible Solutions of the
Crisis--Difficulties of Introducing Constitutional Regime--A Strong
Man Wanted--Uncertainty of the Future.

PREFACE
The first edition of this work, published early in January, 1877,
contained the concentrated results of my studies during an
uninterrupted residence of six years in Russia--from the beginning of
1870 to the end of 1875. Since that time I have spent in the European
and Central Asian provinces, at different periods, nearly two years
more; and in the intervals I have endeavoured to keep in touch with the
progress of events. My observations thus extend over a period of
thirty-five years.
When I began, a few months ago, to prepare for publication the results
of my more recent observations and researches, my intention was to
write an entirely new work under the title of "Russia in the Twentieth
Century," but I soon perceived that it would be impossible to explain

clearly the present state of things without referring constantly to events
of the past, and that I should be obliged to embody in the new work a
large portion of the old one. The portion to be embodied grew rapidly
to such proportions that, in the course of a few weeks, I began to ask
myself whether it would not be better simply to recast and complete my
old material. With a view to deciding the question I prepared a list of
the principal changes which had taken place during the last quarter of a
century, and when I had marshalled them in logical order, I recognised
that they were neither so numerous nor so important as I had supposed.
Certainly there had been much progress, but it had been nearly all on
the old lines. Everywhere I perceived continuity and evolution;
nowhere could I discover radical changes and new departures. In the
central and local administration the reactionary policy of the latter half
of Alexander II.'s reign had been steadily maintained; the revolutionary
movement had waxed and waned, but its aims were essentially the
same as of old; the Church had remained in its usual somnolent
condition; a grave agricultural crisis affecting landed proprietors and
peasants had begun, but it was merely a development of a state of
things which I had previously described; the manufacturing industry
had made gigantic strides, but they were all in the direction which the
most competent observers had predicted; in foreign policy the old
principles of guiding the natural expansive forces along the lines of
least resistance, seeking to reach warm-water ports, and pegging out
territorial claims for the future were persistently followed. No doubt
there were pretty clear indications of more radical changes to come, but
these changes must belong to the future, and it is merely with the past
and the present that a writer who has no pretensions to being a prophet
has to deal.
Under these circumstances it seemed to me advisable to adopt a middle
course. Instead of writing an entirely new work I determined to prepare
a much extended and amplified edition of the old one, retaining such
information about the past as seemed to me of permanent value, and at
the same time meeting as far as possible the requirements of those who
wish to know the present condition of the country.
In accordance with this view I have revised, rearranged, and

supplemented the old material in the light of subsequent events, and I
have added five entirely new chapters--three on the revolutionary
movement, which has come into prominence since 1877; one on the
industrial progress, with which the latest phase of the movement is
closely connected; and one on the main lines of the present situation as
it appears to me at the moment of going to press.
During the many years which I have devoted to the study of Russia, I
have received unstinted assistance from many different quarters. Of the
friends who originally facilitated my task, and to