On the Survival of Rats in the Slush Pile | Page 2

most likely to suffer psychological and physical damage, as a

result of powerful emotions such as anger, bitterness, and frustration. It
will do no harm at all for these people to have a clearer idea, at an early
stage, of the nature of the problems they face.
By 'writers' I mean, for present purposes, novelists. Much of the essay
will be written in terms of the problems facing novelists, but almost
everything that I have to say will also apply to writers of non-fiction;
and much of it will be relevant to playwrights and screenwriters.
The essay is written in the context of book publishing in the UK, but
the position is not, I suggest, very different anywhere else in the world.
Publishing from a writer's perspective
Without writers there are no books. Without books there are no
publishing firms, no leisurely lunches on expenses, no specialist book
printers and binders, no book-trade van drivers, no librarians - and not
even any readers. The whole of the book trade begins, therefore, with
writers; with their hopes, fears, ambitions, and funny little ways. For
that reason alone we should take a close look at this bizarre species.
Nearly all writers yearn to be published; not only do they want to be
published, but they burn to besuccessful. They want to be rich, famous,
and worshipped by the critics; they look forward to an orderly queue of
admirers forming outside their bedroom door.
Writers recognise, of course, that this happy state of affairs cannot
come about overnight; but in the early days, when hope is intense in
their bosoms, they can see no reason why it should not be achieved by
4 p.m. next Thursday.
From a statistical point of view alone, such hopes are fundamentally
absurd, and the material in this essay will explain in some detail why it
is that writers are unlikely to be successful in achieving their ambitions.
The essay is prompted by my dismay, which has intensified over
several decades, at seeing so many intelligent, sensitive, and
hardworking people waste so much of their time on the largely futile

business of trying to write and sell novels. (I have written about a
dozen myself, without, so far, igniting any huge fires.) It irks me that
human beings are so slow to learn, and, having learnt, are so ineffective
at passing on what they have learnt. This essay is therefore my attempt
to remedy what I see as certain deficiencies in the educational process,
at least as far as fiction is concerned. I shall eschew, as far as possible,
offering advice; but the facts, when explained, may suggest to readers
that some courses of action are far more sensible than others.
In the course of this exercise, I hope to minimise the frustration and
despair, and to maximise the profit and enjoyment, not only of writers
but of all those involved in the book trade.
I shall try, as far as possible, not to apportion blame or to make too
many criticisms of individuals who are doing their best in difficult
circumstances.
Between us, we shall, I hope, develop a sense of proportion, and, above
all, a sense of humour; the latter is an essential attribute on the part of
those who wish to contemplate the vagaries of the book business while
remaining sane.
Some of the facts and ideas which are set out here have already been
presented to readers in other media: either in my blog, the Grumpy Old
Bookman (www.grumpyoldbookman.blogspot.com), or in my book
The Truth about Writing. (Note: full details of this and other major
publications mentioned in the text can be found in the references
section at the end.) There is, however, much new thinking on offer in
this essay, and it has largely been inspired and stimulated by the work
of Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who is the author of a book called Fooled by
Randomness. Dr Nassim Nicholas Taleb Taleb is one of those rare
creatures, someone who has a successful track record in the business
world and yet is comfortable, and respected, in academia.
In the world of high finance, Taleb has held a number of senior posts,
including that of managing director and head trader at Union Bank of
Switzerland, and worldwide chief derivatives trader at CS-First Boston;
he is currently Founder and Chairman of Empirica LLC, a research

laboratory and financial products trading house in New York.
Taleb's educational background includes an MBA from Wharton and a
Ph D from UniversitŽ Paris-Dauphine. He is a Fellow in Mathematics
and Adjunct Professor at the Courant Institute of Mathematical
Sciences of New York University, and Visiting Professor of Risk
Management at UniversitŽ Paris-Dauphine.
Taleb first came to public attention as the author of Fooled by
Randomness, the subtitle of which is 'The Hidden Role