Mankind and Political Arithmetic | Page 6

by the hearth-books and late maps. (3) By the cubical content of the said housing. (4) By the flooring of the same. (5) By the number of days' work, or charge of building the said houses. (6) By the value of the said houses, according to their yearly rent, and number of years' purchase. (7) By the number of inhabitants; according to which latter sense only we make our computations in this essay.
Till a better rule can be obtained, we conceive that the proportion of the people may be sufficiently measured by the proportion of the burials in such years as were neither remarkable for extraordinary healthfulness or sickliness.
That the city hath increased in this latter sense appears from the bills of mortality represented in the two following tables, viz., one whereof is a continuation for eighteen years, ending 1682, of that table which was published in the 117th page of the book of the observations upon the London bills of mortality, printed in the year 1676. The other showeth what number of people died at a medium of two years, indifferently taken, at about twenty years' distance from each other.
The first of the said two tables.
A.D. 97 16 Out Buried Besides of Christened Parishes Parishes Parishes in all the Plague 1665 5,320 12,463 10,925 28,708 68,596 9,967 1666 1,689 3,969 5,082 10,740 1,998 8,997 1667 761 6,405 8,641 15,807 35 10,938 1668 796 6,865 9,603 17,267 14 11,633 1669 1,323 7,500 10,440 19,263 3 12,335 1670 1,890 7,808 10,500 20,198 11,997 1671 1,723 5,938 8,063 15,724 5 12,510 1672 2,237 6,788 9,200 18,225 5 12,593 1673 2,307 6,302 8,890 17,499 5 11,895 1674 2,801 7,522 10,875 21,198 3 11,851 1675 2,555 5,986 8,702 17,243 1 11,775 1676 2,756 6,508 9,466 18,730 2 12,399 1677 2,817 6,632 9,616 19,065 2 12,626 1678 3,060 6,705 10,908 20,673 5 12,601 1679 3,074 7,481 11,173 21,728 2 12,288 1680 3,076 7,066 10,911 21,053 12,747 1681 3,669 8,136 12,166 23,971 13,355 1682 2,975 7,009 10,707 20,691 12,653
According to which latter table there died as follows:-
THE LATTER OF THE SAID TWO TABLES
There died in London at the medium between the years -
1604 and 1605 . . . 5,135. A. 1621 and 1622 . . . 8,527. B. 1641 and 1642 . . . 11,883. C. 1661 and 1662 . . . 15,148. D. 1681 and 1682 . . . 22,331. E.
Wherein observe, that the number C is double to A and 806 over. That D is double to B within 1,906. That C and D is double to A and B within 293. That E is double to C within 1,435. That D and E is double to B and C within 3,341; and that C and D and E are double to A and B and C within 1,736; and that E is above quadruple to A. All which differences (every way considered) do allow the doubling of the people of London in 40 years to be a sufficient estimate thereof in round numbers, and without the trouble of fractions. We also say that 669,930 is near the number of people now in London, because the burials are 22,331, which, multiplied by 30 (one dying yearly out of 30, as appears in the 94th page of the aforementioned observations), maketh the said number; and because there are 84,000 tenanted houses (as we are credibly informed), which, at 8 in each, makes 672,000 souls; the said two accounts differing inconsiderably from each other.
We have thus pretty well found out in what number of years (viz., in about 40) that the city of London hath doubled, and the present number of inhabitants to be about 670,000. We must now also endeavour the same for the whole territory of England and Wales. In order whereunto, we first say that the assessment of London is about an eleventh part of the whole territory, and, therefore, that the people of the whole may well be eleven times that of London, viz., about 7,369,000 souls; with which account that of the poll-money, hearth-money, and the bishop's late numbering of the communicants, do pretty well agree; wherefore, although the said number of 7,369,000 be not (as it cannot be) a demonstrated truth, yet it will serve for a good supposition, which is as much as we want at present.
As for the time in which the people double, it is yet more hard to be found. For we have good experience (in the said page 94 of the aforementioned observations) that in the country but 1 of 50 die per annum; and by other late accounts, that there have been sometimes but 24 births for 23 burials. The which two points, if they were universally and constantly true, there would be colour enough to say that the people doubled but in about