A Brief History of Panics | Page 7

calling in of government bonds, the basis of bank-note issue.] and a very small reserve in specie and legal-tender notes and poor and decreasing deposits.
On the other hand, the lowest point of depression following a panic is accompanied by the converse of the symptoms just enumerated.
Bank balance sheets reflect in cold figures the result of the above influences. Prices being high, and discounts and loans large in proportion to deposits, and having steadily increased for years, danger is near; further, when discounts and loans are not only large in proportion to deposits, having increased steadily for years, and then suddenly fallen off noticeably for a considerable time, only to increase again, danger is imminent.
On the other hand, a steady and radical reduction of loans and discounts, following a panic and extending until new enterprises are very scarce, till prices are very low, till there is wide-spread idleness among workmen, a decrease in salaries and in interest rates, when the public is wary and speculation dead, and expenditures are cut down as far as possible, may be taken to mean a rapid and continued resumption of every prosperous business: but if the above process is only partially performed, renewed trouble must result;--in other words, liquidation to really be helpful (to congested business) must be thorough.
A study of the first of the following tables, "National Banks of the United States," illustrates the above generalization. It is unnecessary to mention that 1878, 1884, and 1890 have been the last three panic years. But it is very necessary in studying this table, to bear in mind that its figures are taken from the standing of the banks at the first of the year, while the panics generally occurred later in the year: the last two, for instance in the second and fourth quarter, respectively. The third and fourth tables will give more exact figures in this connection. Table Two, dealing with State Banks, is given merely to round out our banking history as told in figures.
The increase or diminution of deposits of course reflects a confident and successful, or a panicky and impoverishing, state of general business.
TABLE NO. 1.--NATIONAL BANKS OF THE UNITED STATES _________________________________________________________________________ Percentage of Difference (over or under) | between Deposits and Loans and Discounts. | ________________________________________________________________ \ | Difference between Deposits and Loans and Discounts. (Millions) | | _________________________________________________________ \ | | Percentage "Working Capital" exceeds Loans and Discounts.| | | ____________________________________________________ \ | | | Excess of Capital (Surplus, Undivided Profits, | | | | and Deposits) over Loans and Discounts. (Millions) | | | | _____________________________________________ \ | | | | | LOANS | "WORKING CAPITAL." | | | | | | AND |__________________________| | | | | | DISCOUNTS.| Capital. | | | | | |______ \ | / ___________________| | | | | | | | | Undivided Profits | | | | | | | | | and Surplus, etc. | | | | | YEAR|MONTH.| | | / _____________| | | | | | | | | | Deposits | | | | | | | | | | / ______| | | | | | | | | | |TOTAL.| | | | | ========================================================================== | |-----------In Millions.----------| | | | | 1863|Oct. 5| 5.464| 7.188|0.128| 8.497|15.913|10.347|65.4|+3.031|35.6 ovr| 1864|Jan. 4|10.666|14.740|0.432|19.450|34.622|23.956|69.2|+8.784|45.1 " | 1865|Jan. 2| 166 | 135 | 20 | 183 | 338 | 152 |47.7|+ 17 | 9.2 " | 1866|Jan. 1| 500 | 403 | 71 | 522 | 996 | 496 |49.8|+ 22 | 4.2 " | 1867|Jan. 7| 608 | 420 | 86 | 538 | 1064 | 456 |42.8|- 50 | 8.9 und| 1868|Jan. 6| 616 | 420 | 101 | 534 | 1055 | 439 |41.6|- 82 |15.3 " | 1869|Jan. 4| 644 | 419 | 116 | 568 | 1103 | 559 |46.4|- 76 |13.3 " | 1870|Jan.22| 688 | 426 | 124 | 546 | 1096 | 408 |37.2|- 142 |26 " | 1871|Mch.18| 767 | 444 | 140 | 561 | 1145 | 378 |33. |- 206 |36.7 " | 1872|Feb.27| 839 | 464 | 147 | 593 | 1204 | 365 |30.3|- 246 |41.4 " | *1873|Feb.28| 913 | 484 | 163 | 656 | 1303 | 390 |29.9|- 257 |29.1 " | 1874|Feb.27| 897 | 490 | 173 | 595 | 1258 | 361 |28.6|- 302 |52.4 " | 1875|Mch. 1| 956 | 496 | 182 | 647 | 1325 | 369 |27.8|- 309 |47.7 " | 1876|Mch.10| 950 | 504 | 184 | 620 | 1308 | 358 |27.3|- 330 |53.2 " | 1877|Jan.20| 920 | 493 | 167 | 659 | 1319 | 399 |30.2|- 261 |39.6 " | 1878|Mch.15| 854 | 473 | 165 | 602 | 1240 | 386 |31.1|- 252 |41.8 " | 1879|Jan. 1| 823 |